Avian Flu Mechanics

From ScienceInsider, here. The key question: where is the line in scientific publishing where the knowledge could lead to global catastrophe?

In this case, what molecular changes in the avian flu genome would make it as transmissible (to humans) as it is virulent?

I’m sure Oppenheimer and his colleagues on that mesa in New Mexico were having similar thoughts in June of 1945–not in terms of publishing, but rather demonstrating an atomic bomb.

Yale’s Robert Shiller on Neuroeconomics

Shiller was a keynote speaker at the recent Society for Neuroscience meeting in DC. Here he talked about the Neuroeconomics Revolution and a new book by Paul Glimcher, Foundations of Neuroeconomic Analysis.

Money quote:

In particular, Glimcher wants to identify brain structures that process key elements of utility theory when people face uncertainty: “(1) subjective value, (2) probability, (3) the product of subjective value and probability (expected subjective value), and (4) a neuro-computational mechanism that selects the element from the choice set that has the highest ‘expected subjective value’…”

Thanksgiving week at Krasnow

The leaves are mostly off the trees as you can see.  It’s been strangely warm and some of the famous DC cherry trees are blooming out of presumed confusion. The Redskins have lost their six straight, this time to the hated Cowboys. And the Congressional Super-comittee seems headed for failure.

Amidst all of this, there is much to be thankful for: the Krasnow Institute is thriving. Our work is consequential, not incremental. Our trainees clearly enjoy doing science. And our faculty continue to amaze me.

George Mason, in contrast to many other research universities, continues to prosper, both as a growing center of excellence in scholarship, but also as a terrific place for learners and teachers alike.

And science writ large seems to be in rude health. From physics to neuroscience, really significant findings are making their way into publication. Last week’s paper in Nature on the reality of the quantum wave function is but an example.

Tomorrow, this blog goes on Holiday in honor of the Thanksgiving holiday here in the States. We wish all of our readers the very best and we’ll see you Saturday. Stay tuned…

Niall Ferguson’s United States of Europe, 2021

In today’s Wall Street Journal, here. His view: the Euro will still exist, but not so much for the European Union….oh and that Brussels will be replaced by Vienna to make the Germans more comfortable.

It’s an entertaining piece, but I’m pretty skeptical of such geopolitical forecasting, especially so far out. The world is far too much of a series of linked complex adaptive systems to make predictions that I’d be willing to actually bet on.